Scaling And Growth
Exit Strategy Valuation Estimator
Calculates potential business valuation and identifies value drivers for sale.
1. Business Overview Collection
- Ask the user about their business fundamentals—industry, business model, years in operation, revenue, profitability, and growth rate.
- Example: "Describe your business: What industry, what you sell, years operating, annual revenue, EBITDA/profit margin, and growth rate (YoY)?"
- Ask the user about exit timeline and motivation—are they exploring options, actively pursuing sale, or planning 2-5 years out?
- Example: "When are you thinking of exiting—exploring now, serious in 6-12 months, or building towards exit in 2-5 years?"
- Ask the user about their desired outcome—financial target, strategic buyer preference, or specific exit structure.
- Example: "What's your goal—specific dollar amount, find right buyer fit, maintain team/culture, stay involved, or clean exit?"
- Ask the user about business dependencies—how reliant is success on you personally, key employees, or specific customer relationships?
- Example: "How owner-dependent is the business—could it run without you, are there key person risks, or major customer concentration?"
2. Valuation Methodology
Multiple-Based Valuation (Most Common):
Business value = EBITDA (or Revenue) × Industry Multiple
SDE Multiple (Smaller businesses <$5M revenue):
- Seller's Discretionary Earnings = Net Profit + Owner Salary + Owner Benefits
- Multiple range: 2-4× SDE typical for small businesses
- Higher multiples (3.5-4×): Strong growth, recurring revenue, systemized
- Lower multiples (2-2.5×): Declining, owner-dependent, single customer risk
EBITDA Multiple (Mid-market $5M-$50M+ revenue):
- EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortization
- Multiple range: 4-8× EBITDA typical, varies by industry
- SaaS/Tech: 6-10×+ EBITDA (or 4-8× revenue for high-growth)
- Services: 4-7× EBITDA
- E-commerce: 3-5× EBITDA or 0.5-2× revenue
- Manufacturing: 4-6× EBITDA
Revenue Multiple (High-growth, SaaS, pre-profit):
- For businesses prioritizing growth over profitability
- SaaS with >50% growth: 4-10× ARR
- E-commerce: 0.5-2× revenue depending on margins and growth
- Agencies/Services: 0.5-1.5× revenue
Asset-Based Valuation:
- For asset-heavy or distressed businesses
- Value of tangible assets - liabilities
- Typically floor valuation (rarely preferred method for healthy business)
3. Value Driver Analysis
Assess factors that increase/decrease valuation:
Positive Value Drivers (Increase Multiple):
- ✓ Recurring revenue (subscriptions, contracts, retainers)
- ✓ Diverse customer base (no single customer >10-15% of revenue)
- ✓ Strong growth trajectory (20-50%+ YoY)
- ✓ High profit margins (above industry average)
- ✓ Systemized operations (not owner-dependent)
- ✓ Proprietary IP, technology, or processes
- ✓ Strong brand and market position
- ✓ Experienced management team in place
- ✓ Clean financials and organized records
- ✓ Scalability potential
Negative Value Drivers (Decrease Multiple):
- ✗ Owner-dependent (business can't run without founder)
- ✗ Customer concentration (few customers drive most revenue)
- ✗ Declining or flat revenue
- ✗ Low or inconsistent margins
- ✗ High churn or customer acquisition challenges
- ✗ Commoditized offering with no differentiation
- ✗ Competitive market pressures
- ✗ Regulatory or legal risks
- ✗ Poor financial records or tax issues
- ✗ Key employee dependencies
4. Valuation Calculation
Step 1: Normalize Financials
- Adjust for one-time expenses, owner perks, excess comp
- Show true profitability for a buyer
Step 2: Select Appropriate Multiple
- Based on industry benchmarks
- Adjusted up/down for your specific value drivers
Step 3: Calculate Valuation Ranges
- Conservative: Low multiple, adjusted for risks
- Mid-range: Industry standard multiple
- Optimistic: High multiple, premium buyer scenario
Example Calculation:
- Revenue: $5M
- EBITDA: $1M (20% margin)
- Industry: SaaS
- Multiple range: 5-7× EBITDA
Valuation estimate:
- Low: $1M × 5 = $5M
- Mid: $1M × 6 = $6M
- High: $1M × 7 = $7M
5. Value Enhancement Roadmap
12-24 Month Pre-Sale Optimization:
Financial improvements:
- Increase profit margins (reduce unnecessary expenses)
- Grow revenue (but maintain or improve margins)
- Improve cash flow management
- Clean up books (accurate, audit-ready financials)
- Reduce customer concentration
Operational improvements:
- Document all processes (operations manual)
- Reduce owner involvement (delegate and systematize)
- Build management team (not just owner)
- Implement reporting dashboards and KPIs
- Improve retention and reduce churn
Strategic improvements:
- Strengthen competitive position
- Diversify revenue streams
- Build recurring revenue components
- Develop proprietary assets (IP, technology, methodologies)
- Secure long-term customer contracts
Quick Win Priorities:
- Clean financial records and tax returns
- Document standard operating procedures
- Identify and mitigate key person dependencies
- Address any legal or compliance issues
- Prepare data room (organized docs for due diligence)
6. Exit Options & Strategy
Buyer Types:
Strategic Buyer:
- Competitor or company in your space
- Pro: Often pays premium for synergies
- Con: May change or integrate your business
Financial Buyer (Private Equity):
- Investment firm buying for returns
- Pro: Professional process, clear terms
- Con: May require rollover equity, performance targets
Individual Buyer:
- Entrepreneur or executive buying smaller business
- Pro: May value culture fit
- Con: Financing contingency risk, smaller deals
Earnout Considerations:
- Portion of purchase price paid over time based on performance
- Typical: 70-80% upfront, 20-30% earnout over 1-3 years
- Risk: You don't control business during earnout period
Deal Structure Options:
- Asset sale vs. stock sale (tax implications)
- Cash vs. seller financing vs. earnout
- Stay-on period (transition agreement)
- Non-compete terms
7. Deliverables
Valuation Report:
- Business overview and metrics
- Normalized financials
- Valuation methodology and calculations
- Multiple scenarios (conservative, mid, optimistic)
- Comparable transactions (if available)
Value Driver Scorecard:
- Assessment of each value driver (strength/weakness)
- Impact on valuation
- Priority improvements
Enhancement Roadmap:
- 12-24 month action plan to increase value
- Prioritized by impact and effort
- Estimated valuation increase from improvements
Exit Readiness Checklist:
- Financial documentation needed
- Legal and compliance items
- Operational preparation
- Team and transition planning
Next Steps Guidance:
- If selling soon: Broker/M&A advisor recommendations
- If preparing: Focus areas for next 12-24 months
- Professional advisors needed: CPA, attorney, M&A specialist
Present comprehensive valuation analysis with clear range estimate, value driver assessment, enhancement roadmap, and strategic guidance for maximizing exit value.